Trump 2.0: Understanding his mindset in an uncertain 2025 world

Elon Musk and Donald Trump.

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The Efficiency Imperative

Within the business world, conventional wisdom suggests 20 percent of any workforce generates 80 percent of the value. In government, that ratio likely skews further. The fundamental question isn't merely about efficiency but about utility—whether certain departments produce results aligned with their stated purpose or generate counterproductive outcomes that justify their termination.

Beyond the Sunk Cost Fallacy

Profitable enterprises cannot afford to throw good money after bad—a luxury government has historically indulged through access to fiat currency and taxation. Trump's apparent reluctance to continue certain international commitments reflects a businessman's aversion to the sunk cost fallacy, where past expenditures are erroneously used to justify continued investment in failing ventures.

From Monopoly to Strategic Oligopoly

Trump's recent foreign policy adjustments suggest a shift from America's unipolar position—the geopolitical equivalent of monopoly—toward a multipolar approach resembling an oligopoly. While monopoly position remains preferable, the pragmatic businessman recognizes when competitors, in this case, Russia and China (see “Russia and China Are Facts of Life,” SLL, 1/28/25), have grown too substantial to eliminate, necessitating a strategic pivot.

The arrangement creates a landscape where major powers sometimes cooperate (like Ancient Rome and Ancient Egypt) and sometimes compete (like Ancient Rome and Carthage)—ideally through economic and diplomatic channels rather than military confrontation. As noted by Joseph P. Kennedy in business contexts, military conflict represents a significant expense best avoided when possible.

The Revenue Equation

In my past corporate transformation experience, successful corporate turnarounds require more than cost-cutting; they demand new revenue streams, for cash-flow is the lifeblood of business. For a country, that means creating an environment where businesses can thrive. Trump saw excessive regulations and government red tape as obstacles that slowed down economic growth. By removing these barriers, he hoped businesses would expand, create jobs, and generate more tax revenue naturally.

The Bottom Line

As my father, who served as a management at one of American's FORTUNE 500 companies for 30 years said, "America was built on enterprise and innovation, not government bureaucracy". Trump's business perspective brings practical considerations to government operations, challenging established orthodoxies with the straightforward metrics of profitability and sustainability.

Trump’s approach was to run the country like a company—focusing on efficiency, cutting waste, and making bold financial decisions. Whether or not this method could work in politics remains up for debate. But one thing is clear: ignoring financial reality leads to national bankruptcy, just like it does for any failing business.